Imprecise probability

A Counterexample to Three Imprecise Decision Theories

There is currently much discussion about how decision making should proceed when an agent's degrees of belief are imprecise; represented by a set of probability functions. I show that decision rules recently discussed by Sarah Moss, Susanna Rinard …

Imprecise Probability Models of Rational Belief

This project explores Imprecise probabilities as a model for rational belief.

Imprecise Probabilities

It has been argued that imprecise probabilities are a natural and intuitive way of overcoming some of the issues with orthodox precise probabilities. Models of this type have a long pedigree, and interest in such models has been growing in recent …

Can free evidence be bad?: Value of information for the imprecise probabilist

This paper considers a puzzling conflict between two positions that are each compelling: (A) it is irrational for an agent to pay to avoid 'free' evidence before making a decision, and (B) rational agents may have *imprecise* beliefs and/or desires. …

How to choose among choice functions

If one models an agent's degrees of belief by a set of probabilities, how should that agent's choices be constrained? In other words, what choice function should the agent use? This paper summarises some suggestions, and outlines a collection of …

Uncertainty, learning, and the 'problem' of dilation

Imprecise probabilism, which holds that rational belief/credence is permissibly represented by a set of probability functions, apparently suffers from a problem known as *dilation*. We explore whether this problem can be avoided or mitigated by one …

Should subjective probabilities be sharp?

There has been much recent interest in *imprecise probabilities*, models of belief that allow unsharp or fuzzy credence. There have also been some influential criticisms of this position. Here we argue, chiefly against Elga (2010), that subjective …